Introduction

First, let’s take a look at the carry trade. In short, the carry trade is used when an investor or speculator is attempting to capture the price appreciation or depreciation in a currency while also profiting on the interest differential. Using this strategy, a trader is essentially selling a currency that is offering a relatively low interest rate while buying a currency that is offering a higher interest rate. This way, the trader is able to profit from the differential of interest rates.

With the introduction of the carry trade , yen currency pairs have become the speculator’s preference. Currency crosses like the GBP/JPY and NZD/JPY have been able to net small intraday or even longer term profits for the currency trader as speculation continues to support the bid tone. But how can one enter into a market that is already seemingly overheated? Even if a trader could, what would be a good price, and doesn’t everything that goes up come down? The answer is easier and simpler than most believe. In this article we’ll show you how to use carry trades to profit from overwhelming market momentum.

Definition

A strategy in which an investor sells a certain currency with a relatively low interest rate and uses the funds to purchase a different currency yielding a higher interest rate. A trader using this strategy attempts to capture the difference between the rates – which can often be substantial, depending on the amount of leverage the investor chooses to use.

For example, taking one of the favored pairs in the market right now, let’s take a look at the New Zealand dollar/Japanese yen currency pair. Here, a carry trader would borrow Japanese yen and then convert it into New Zealand dollars. After the conversion, the speculator would then buy a Kiwi bond for the corresponding amount, earning 8%. Therefore, the investor makes a 7.5% return on the interest alone after taking into account the 0.5% that is paid on the yen funds.

Now on the earning side of the trade, the investor is also hoping that the price will appreciate in order to make further gains on the transaction. In this case, anyone that has invested in the NZD/JPY trade has been able to reap plenty of benefits.

Evolution of the carry trade

The first wave of carry trade started in the late 1980s when financial speculators borrowed in yen and invested in European securities. This first phase ended in 1993 after the Japanese bubble collapsed, Japanese investors retreated home and the yen appreciated.

The second round of carry trade began in the summer of 1995 and ended in late 1998 after Russia defaulted, the Long-Term Capital Management hedge fund collapsed, and the Japanese government planned to recapitalize the distressed banking sector. The yen rose 15% against the dollar in a week.

The recent wave of the yen carry trade is built on the Japanese government’s policy of keeping its interest rate and currency low in order to export its way out of recession and deflation. It has continued until (10-17 August) when the yen jumped 10% caused by the default in sub-prime mortgages and the knock-on effects on equity markets worldwide.

Profitability in carry trade

Over the past five years, official interest rates have been lowest in Japan and Switzerland, and the yen and the Swiss franc are the most commonly cited funding currencies (Graph 1). The Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar and sterling have appreciated steadily and have been cited as popular target currencies, although a number of other currencies are often used as well (eg the Brazilian real and the South African rand). Since 2004, with the normalization of policy rates from historically low levels, the US dollar has moved from being a funding currency to a potential target.

The carry-to-risk ratio is a popular ex ante measure of the attractiveness of carry trades. It adjusts the interest rate differential by the risk of future exchange rate movements, where this risk is proxied by the expected volatility (implied by foreign exchange options) of the relevant currency pair. By this measure, carry trade positions that were short yen and long target currencies such as the Australian dollar were increasingly promising from 2002 to 2005.

Graph: 1

Sources: Bloomberg; JPMorgan Chase; national data; BIS calculations

These positions have remained so on average, despite two bouts of higher volatility which led to significant, albeit temporary, declines in the attractiveness of some target currencies (eg the South African rand).Over the longer term, however, the attractiveness of carry trades relative to other investments is less clear (Burnside et al (2006)).

Risk reversals – or the price difference between two equivalently out of the-money options – potentially provide an alternative market indicator of perceived risks in carry trades. If the risk associated with carry trade returns is not generalized uncertainty about future values of the exchange rates, as the carry-to-risk measure implicitly assumes, but rather directional uncertainty, this will be more effectively captured by risk reversals calculated from out-of-the money options. A strong correlation between the two measures is apparent in Graph 1. In addition, Gagnon and Chaboud (2007) argue that movements in risk reversals tend to post-date large exchange rate movements in periods of high volatility.

The Mechanics of Earning Interest

One of the cornerstones of the carry trade strategy is the ability to earn interest. The income is accrued every day for long carry trades with triple rollover given on Wednesday to account for Saturday and Sunday rolls. Roughly speaking, the daily interest is calculated in the following way:

(Interest Rate of the Currency that you are Long – Interest Rate of the Currency that you are Short) x Notional of Your Position

———————————————————————–

No of Days in a Year

For example one lot of NZD/JPY that has a notional of 100,000, we compute interest the following way:

(.8 – 0.005) x 100,000 = approximately $20 a day

365

It is important to realize that this amount can only be earned by traders who are long NZD/JPY. For those who are fading the carry, interest will need to be paid every day.

Flags and Pennants in carry trade

At present in this currency rising trend, how can a trader really capture market profits in the bull market? One such formation that has proved to be a great setup may be the all too familiar, flag and pennant formations. This has been especially useful in carry currency crosses such as British pound/Japanese yen and New Zealand dollar/Japanese yen. Both formations are used in similar capacities; they are great short-term tools that can be applied to capture nothing but continuations in the foreign exchange market. They are both even more applicable when the market, especially in the case of carry trade currencies, has been trading higher and higher in every session.

To get a better sense of how this works, let’s quickly review the differences between a flag and a pennant:

• A flag formation is a charting pattern that is indicative of consolidation following an upward surge in price. The name is attributed to the fact that it resembles an actual flag with a downward-sloping body (due to price consolidation) and a visually evident post. Targets are also very reliable in flag formations. Traders who use this technical pattern will reference the distance from the bottom of the post (significant support level) to the top. Subsequently, when the price breaks the upper trend line of the flag, the distance of the post will more often than not be equivalent to the next level of resistance.

• A pennant formation is similar to the flag formation – it differs only in the form of consolidation. Instead of a body of consolidation that moves in the opposite direction of the post (as in the case of a flag), the pennant’s body is simply a symmetrical triangle. Although pennants have been known to slope downward as well, the textbook formation has also been noted as a symmetrical triangle, hence the name.

Similar setups are seen in the cross currency pairs, giving the trader plenty of opportunities in the currency market, with or without dollar exposure. Taking another market favorite, the British pound/Japanese yen, let’s take a look at how this method can be applied to the chart.

In the short-term 60-minute chart in Graph 2, a typically long flag formation is coming around in the GBP/JPY currency pair. In order to establish the formation initially, it is recommended that the chartist draw the topside trend line first. This rule is a must as an initial drawing of the bottom trend line may lead to varying interpretations. Once the initial downward-sloping trend line is drawn, the bottom is a simple duplicate. Here, the trader will make sure to note a touch by the session bodies rather than the wicks in verifying the formation as true. This is to isolate only true price action and not volatility or common “noise” that may occur in the short term.

Step by Step procedure for carry traders:

Now let’s take a look at a step by step process that will allow traders to enter on the carry trade momentum in the market. Figure 3 shows a great opportunity in the New Zealand dollar/Japanese yen cross pair. Following the complete downturn that occurred July 9 – July11, 2007, a visual burst can be seen by chartists as bidders take the currency higher over the next 48 hours, establishing a temporary top at Point A.

Source: FX Trek Intellicharts Figure 3: Following A Sharp Decline, NZDJPY Vaults Higher Off Of Support

1. After consolidation, draw the topside trend line first, completing the formation with the duplicate bottom trend line giving the chartist the flag boundaries.

2. On a sign of a trend line break, measure the distance from the bottom of the post to the top. In this instance, the bottom support of the post is 93.81 with the top at 95.74. This gives the trader a potential for 193 pips on the trade after a break of the top trend line.

3. Once there is a confirmed break of the trend line, place the entry that is at the session close or lower of the finished candle. In this case, the break occurs approximately at 95.40 with the entry being placed at that session’s close of 95.46 (Point C). Subsequently, a corresponding stop is placed five pips below the session low of 95.37. Ultimately, the position is well within normal risk parameters as it is risking 14 pips to make 193 pips.

4. Set initial and full targets. With the full move estimated at 193 pips, we get a partial distance of 96 pips (193 pips / 2). As a result, the initial target is set for 96.42 (Point B).

5. Set contingent trailing stops. Once the initial target is achieved, the overall position should be reduced by half with the rest being protected by a trailing stop set at the entry price (or break-even). This will allow for further gains while protecting against adverse moves against whatever is left. Longer term strategies will hold to the entry price as the ultimate stop, promoting a worst-case scenario of break-even.

Best Way to Trade Carry

With the pros and cons of carry trading in mind, the best way to trade carry is through a basket. When it comes to carry trades, at any point in time, one central bank may be holding interest rates steady while another may be increasing or decreasing them. With a basket that consists of the three highest and the three lowest yielding currencies, any one currency pair only represents a portion of the whole portfolio; therefore, even if there is carry trade liquidation in one currency pair, the losses are controlled by owning a basket. This is actually the preferred way of trading carry for investment banks and hedge funds. This strategy may be a bit tricky for individuals because trading a basket would naturally require greater capital, but it can be done with smaller lot sizes. The key with a basket is to dynamically change the portfolio allocations based upon the interest rate curve and monetary policies of the central banks.

Conclusion

The carry trade is a long-term strategy that is far more suitable for investors than traders because investors will revel in the fact that they will only need to check price quotes a few times a week rather than a few times a day. True carry traders, including the leading banks on , will hold their positions for months (if not years) at a time. The cornerstone of the carry trade strategy is to get paid while you wait, so waiting is actually a good thing.

Partly due to the demand for carry trades, trends in the currency market are strong and directional. This is important for short-term traders as well because, in a currency pair where the interest rate differential is very significant, it may be far more profitable to look for opportunities to buy on dips in the direction of the carry than to try to fade it. For those who insist on fading AUD/JPY strength for example, they should be wary of holding short positions for too long because with each passing day, more interest will need to be paid. The best way for shorter term traders to look at interest is that earning it helps to reduce your average price while paying interest increases it. For an intraday trade, the carry will not matter, but for a three-, four- or five-day trade, the direction of carry becomes far more meaningful.

The reality of the trading business is that a large percentage of one’s trades will be losers. Every business has overhead expenses, or costs of simply opening the doors for business. Trading is no different and trading losses are a large part of those overhead expenses. Once one accepts that aspect of trading, it becomes much easier to close losing trades early with minimal emotional attachment.

It is also crucial to post audit your trading every month. I evaluate each trade that lost money and categorize it as a “losing trade” or a “bad trade”. The bad trade is the one where I did not follow my own trading system rules, whereas the losing trade was executed and managed correctly, but simply did not turn out positively – it was part of my overhead.

The precise percentages of losing trades will depend upon the markets being traded and also the particular trading strategy. For example, many successful commodity traders will only have 30-40% winning trades. At first blush, that doesn’t appear to be a viable proposition, but the key is the ratio of gains on the winning trades versus the losses on the losing trades.

For example, let’s assume my trading system’s average winning trade returns $250 but my losing trades average about $500. That doesn’t look like a winning system, but the crucial missing piece of information is the ratio of wins to losses. If I win 10 of the next 12 trades, I will gain $2,500 and lose $1,000 on the two losing trades for a net gain of $1,500. Another trading system might have a different pattern, e.g., winning trades average a $750 gain, but losing trades average losses of $100. This pattern of wins and losses is fine if the probability of success is high enough to make up for the losses. For example, if my probability of success is only 20%, this system will be profitable. Out of the next ten trades, two winners would account for $1,500 while the eight losers would total $800 in losses, for a net gain of $700.

Always understand the risk/reward ratio of your trading strategy. Couple that with the probabilities of success and loss to know the expected value of a series of trades using this system. Depending on the parameters, one system will be profitable with infrequent, but large, winning trades, while another profitable system may be characterized by highly probable, but small, winning trades.

This explains why you often hear a trading guru adamantly insist that you must always trade where the maximum gain is at least three times the maximum loss (a low risk/reward ratio). But then you hear another well known trading coach tell you that the best trading strategies are the ones with probabilities of success greater than 85%, with a high risk/reward ratio. Nether system is superior. But each system has its own pattern of wins and losses and optimal trade management. Which system is most compatible with your trading style and risk tolerance?

One of the items on your checklist before making a trade should be a glance at the calendar to see if any exchange holidays are upcoming. When time decay is on your side, exchange holidays are also your friend. If the market isn’t open, it can’t move against your positions, but time decay is still occurring and improving the profitability of your position. I will often establish my OTM credit spread positions before long holiday weekends to add to my edge.Another important factor to keep in mind is the historical seasonality of volatility. Trading activity slows during several of the holidays every year, as traders take time off to be with their families and exchange business tends to slow. March and October have historically displayed the highest volatility for the year, whereas the summer months and the week between Christmas and New Year’s Day are historically slow periods of market activity. An old wall street maxim is “sell in May and go away.” It refers to the tendencies for many market participants to take vacations and long weekends over the summer, resulting in lower trading volumes and lower volatility. This tends to favor strategies like iron condors that benefit from slower moving, sideways markets.Another factor tracked by many traders is which monthly options cycles have 5 weeks and which only have 4 weeks. Option prices will be skewed because of the number of days in an option cycle.  If your trading style involves consistently selling premium each option cycle, you should be aware of the five week option months, since the amount of premium income may be affected.Options trading strategies that benefit from the time decay of options prices are attractive for monthly income generation. Pay attention to the calendar and put time on your side.

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REIT’s, commodities, large cap, international, emerging markets, convertible bonds, defensive stocks, took severe beatings in 2008. Every company that was considered “too big to fail”, or so conservative that it shouldn’t have failed, did just that. Whoever said “No two bear markets are alike” certainly got that right. Even Warren Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway stock (Symbol: BRK) experienced a -54% peak-to-trough trading range in since December 2007. There has never more uncertainty among Investors approaching retirement, CFA’s and mathematically minded financial services participants, as the market’s nervous reaction to every “take it to the bank” arbitrage in 2008 became temporarily disconnected.

Author Roger Lowenstein has spent considerable time analyzing those who come to trading by way of the traditional route. In his book, When Genius Failed: The Rise and Fall of Long Term Capital Management1, Lowenstein wrote that “those who are attracted to mathematics and analysis are drawn to fixed income and convertible bond arbitrage because much of what determines their value is readily quantifiable.”

I suspect financial planners and sophisticated investors in general, are a similar breed. The financial planners I know are well educated, mathematically minded, and contemplative. They’re attracted to the certainty of planning, and their vocabularies are peppered with terms like annuity, CAGR, estate planning, efficient frontier, MPT, asset allocation, risk-adjusted return, and diversified portfolio.

On the other hand, those attracted to floor trading, like me are typically emotional, anxious, and highly intuitive. Like hungry street urchins, we rely on quick reflexes and the general belief that it’s more important to be first on a trade than it is to be right. And like any self-respecting trader, we thirst for a little excitement. In fact, we can be described as the liar’s-poker-double-espresso-filled-undiagnosed-ADD-patients-who-trade-triple-beta-ETFs-because–anything-less-than-a-Volatility-Index-level-of-70-is-too-boring orphans of the industry.

Terms that an options floor trader may use on any given day are a bit different than those of a typical financial planner and include skew, kurtosis, theoretical edge, risk reversal, I-Wham (Russell 2000 ETF; Symbol: IWM), implied volatility, assignment, dollar-weighted deltas, and slop.

When I started on the trading floor of the CBOE in 1982, I was 22, and the majority of the traders in those days were from blue collar, Irish families who treated day-trading with the same mentality as a plumber who lays pipe or a carpenter who frames a wall: it was a job.

I spent the majority of my years at the CBOE in the OEX pit, where the practice of hiring MBAs was discouraged – even derided. Why? It was believed that you couldn’t teach a business major anything. And that might have been true: they weren’t pliable enough to mentor. Floor traders needed to have an intuitive sense of risk management and quick reflexes to maneuver around short term market moves. With an eye toward disaster, they frequently owned out-of-the-money puts. Countless arguments erupted between the quants, who understood the mathematical impossibility of a 23 standard deviation move during the Crash of 1987 and the floor traders who had no idea what a standard deviation was, but who did know that they would lose their homes if the market dropped substantially.

And they figured – without the aid of a calculator – that their wives would be really, really mad.

Lowenstein cites how Nobel Prize winners Fisher Black, Myron Scholes, and Robert Merton, who created the famous option pricing model known as Black-Scholes, disagreed with the fat tails or steepness of volatility skew that floor traders priced into out-of-the-money put options. To the creators of the Black-Scholes option pricing model, volatility was a constant, log-normal distribution.

“Merton carried the assumption a step further,” Lowenstein says. “He assumed volatility was so constant that prices would trade in continuous time, without any jumps.”

Today’s options traders need a firm grasp on the nuances of volatility skew, kurtosis, dollar-weighted deltas, and Vega. Yes, we have high speed computers that process tens of thousands of theoretical values in hundredths of milliseconds and seven billion stock and option quotes per day sent from exchanges.

But can the emotional and often volatile pit trader offer anything to the structured, well educated financial planner? The answer is yes. The truth is that you don’t need anything other than a simple calculator, the right kind of experience, and often, a little out-of-the-box thinking to achieve a terrific rate of return. After all, it is said that some of the best inspirations come from outside the box.

And who is more outside the box than an options trader?

I was struck by a comment made by CFA Adrian Cronje, who was quoted in the Journal of Financial Planning, January, 2009 issue, as saying, “The good news is that for the first time in many years, investors are now being paid to take risks.”2

Investors are being paid to take risks. Imagine that.

Nowhere is that statement truer than in the current environment of options trading and covered call writing. To be more accurate, investors are getting paid handsomely to take less risk. Recent market volatility has created a once-in-a-generation perfect storm, a history making blizzard favoring the individual investor and featuring:

1.  Unprecedentedly high option volatility levels due to the credit crisis

2.  The inability of investment banks to participate in trading due to their de-leveraging

3.  Clearing firms uniformly reducing risk across all market participant

4.  Continued fear of the downside

Cronje, Adrian, Journal of Financial Planning, “Is Markowitz Wrong?” ;(Jan 2009)

5.  Massive de-leveraging of hedge funds and 130/30 strategies

6.  Generational low interest rates

7.  Pensions and endowments rumored to be selling assets to meet cash obligations rather than rebalancing strategic allocations

Financial Planners and investors may want to brush up on basic option theory especially covered call writing tactics and read the academic white papers on the higher risk adjusted returns covered call writing provides as the nations 76 million baby boomers will be looking to planners and advisors for help in rebuilding their portfolios and simultaneously converting their “buy and hold” portfolios of growth stocks to a vehicle that delivers substantial retirement income.

Retirees are tired of hearing the endless droning from pundits discussing the benefits of greater asset allocation, cutting monthly expenses or promoting the benefits of being a Wal-Mart greeter.

Endnotes:

Lowenstein, Roger, When Genius Failed: The Rise and Fall of Long Term Capital Management (New York: Random House, 2001), 67-68, 76-77.