Where to go from here:Well first, simply understand and clear your head of the above stock, and trading myths. Free yourself from these beliefs that restrain your potential as a trader. This will automatically put you in front of most traders.There are a few traders however, less than 1%, who understand the above and more. who are quietly making a killing from the stock market, and are spending no more time trading than you. A lot of them keep their winning system and their successful trading secrets to themselves, but there are a few who will share this information with the publicJust remember, none of these super traders are born geniuses. And they don’t have a crystal ball forecasting the stock market. They simply have found a winning system that isn’t restricted to any time frame or market. The most successful traders are nobody special, apart from the stock market secrets they learned and diligence to put them in action.Regardless of whether you trade Stocks, Options, Futures or Forex, or your level of experience, you can’t afford to keep buying and hoping. Stop leaving your success to chance when you can take control. It isn’t necessary to keep wasting all this time and money on the common trading methods. Even if you are ahead, the average trader could trade far more efficiently.You too can become one of the very small percent of traders. Seriously, you just need to learn how to properly, plot the chart, the right setup conditions, the best entry point, stop loss point, and place your profit target point. To learn how to do the things listed above, and for actual insider trading secrets on how the most profitable traders really do it – Read on.

The IVY bot is an autopilot FOREX Trading robot for the private traders. FOREX is the abbreviation of foreign currency exchange. For very long time, a variety of financial products were only available to the professional traders of Banks and Financial Institutions. But by the online trading almost everybody can participate in every financial market. Especially during the crisis of nowadays, more and more private traders used the advantages of FOREX trading. Since here you exchange currencies, you are independent from the profits and losses of a single companyHow does IVY bot work?IVY bot is an automated software for the FOREX market, developed by Ivy graduates. Depending on the actual market situation, the robot automatically invests your money in order to maximize your net profit. Compared to other FOREX software, the IVY bot has several unique features. The most important ones for the conservative traders are the Automated Risk Scaling and the High Spread Protection System. They both minimize the risk of the investor. All you need is a PC with a connection to the internet. Since the FOREX market is opened 6 days a week, you can make profits even while you are asleep.What makes it so unique?As many other robots, the robot is working fully automatic. But the IVY bot has an auto update system. Professional traders and mathematicians are updating the software depending on the actual market state. Other robots are only optimized on the market situation at the time of creating the program and are designed to work only with one currency. The IVY bot is always tuned to the latest market situation and you can trade various number of currencies.

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What makes it so unique?As many other robots, the robot is working fully automatic. But the IVY bot has an auto update system. Professional traders and mathematicians are updating the software depending on the actual market state. Other robots are only optimized on the market situation at the time of creating the program and are designed to work only with one currency. The IVY bot is always tuned to the latest market situation and you can trade various number of currencies.To Download Ivybot At Discount  Here           www.ivybot.com

From arbitrage to zero-coupon bonds, this all-inclusive guide explains the fundamentals of investments and their markets. Covers how broker/dealer firms function, option trading, technical and fundamental futures, exchange and over-the-counter transactions, and more.

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As worldwide demand for commodities continues to heat up and more and more investors (both institutional and individual) begin seeing commodities as a viable investment vehicle, this trend is likely to continue. This growth has also increased the need for effective ways to choose a commodity trading advisor. In this article we will outline what we feel are some of the best tools and methods available to the individual investor when choosing which managed futures product to invest in.

First things first, let’s define what managed futures are and what they are not. Managed futures are not stocks or ETF’s that simply invest in commodities. Managed futures accounts are investments in which funds are invested in mostly leveraged, future dated contracts for the actual physical commodities or financial instruments. Commodities can include sectors such as food, energy, raw materials and also financial instruments like interest rates and stock indices.

The leverage, risks and rewards can be (but are not always) substantially higher when investing in the futures markets vs. the stock market. Managed futures investments in the United States are regulated by both the National Futures Association and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (unless the firm / fund have “exempt” status). Regulated firms are licensed as Commodity Trading Advisors (CTA’s) or Commodity Pool Operators (CPO’s). However, keep in mind that just because a firm is licensed or regulated, this is in no way an endorsement of potential performance. Futures trading can carry large potential risks and is not for everybody. Investors should fully familiarize themselves with all applicable risks and disclosures prior to making any investments.

Finding lists of potential managers to sort through is relatively easy if you know where to look.  Firms such as Barclays Trading Group, Stark Research, Autumn Gold and Altegris Investments have databases of manager information available. One resource we particularly like is www.IASG.com .Institutional Advisory Services Group provides a free (with registration) online database of over 450 programs. In addition, the programs can be sorted by a wide range of parameters such as minimum account size, funds under management, various performance measurements etc.

The only problem we see with the online databases is that it can become somewhat overwhelming to try and narrow down your choices to just a handful of managers. In order to make the process a little easier we would like to share with you what we think are some of most important performance metrics to pay attention to.

First recommendation, forget return! The least meaningful statistic often is a manager’s return. How can that be you ask? What matters is RISK ADJUSTED RETURN. Just because somebody bet the farm and got lucky does not mean it was a good idea. Sooner or later (most often sooner) the inevitable wipe out will occur with a manager betting too aggressively.

There are a number of traditional risk adjusted return measurements, the most popular of which being the Sharpe ratio. The Sharpe Ratio compares the return relative to the underlying volatility in the investment. While fundamentally we are in complete agreement with the Sharpe Ratio’s logic, we feel it has one serious flaw. The flaw is that the Sharpe Ratio only views past volatility and makes no attempt to try and predict future volatility. As a result, we feel the Sharpe ratio does not give an adequate view of the potential risks involved in a program. 

A good example of this comes from the world of the “option writers” (those who sell options). Since most options expire worthless it’s not uncommon for managers that sell options (and have a good approach) to have excellent Sharpe Ratios. They can have very smooth looking equity curves that have produced for many years. However, just because an equity curve looks smooth and consistent does not mean it will stay that way. What happened in the past is meaningless if you don’t have the same results in the future. Unfortunately, option sellers with longer term excellent track records have been known to have very quick spectacular “blowups”. The problem, in our opinion, is that past volatility is not a good predictor of future volatility.

What is a good predictor you ask? In our opinion one of the best volatility predictors is called the “Margin to Equity Ratio” (MTE). The MTE tells you approximately how much of your investment would be used for margin purposes. This number will vary day-by-day for a given manager but you can get the average range. If for example a managers MTE was 10% this means that for every $100,000 invested the manager uses approximately $10,000 of that for margin at any given time. Keep this in mind; the exchanges set margin based on their approximations of risk. The higher their perceived risk in a contract the higher the margin they set. We encourage you to think just like the exchanges and raise your expectations for potential risk as the MTE goes higher. If we go back to the example of the option writers with good Sharpe ratios you will also often see that they have very high MTE ratios. We believe that these high MTE ratios could have been the tip off to have avoided many disastrous scenarios. Once again, just as the exchanges often raise margin requirements as their expectation of volatility rises, so too do we see the potential for volatility (risk) to be higher as the MTE rises.

Another important use of the MTE comes down to simple math. If you have two managers that both made a $30,000 return yet one used $30,000 in margin to do it and the other used $60,000 in margin to do it then the results are not the same. Based on margin usage one manager’s return was twice as high as the others. This is very important to keep in mind because often managers can appear to have very similar performances but when you dig down into their margin usage you see large differences.

What is an ideal MTE? In our opinion we don’t like to see margin to equity ratios much above 10%. This is on the low end of the spectrum for managed futures accounts and eliminates the vast majority of managers. While it is true that having a low MTE is no guarantee of lower risk (managers with low MTE’s can “blowup” too) we feel that at the minimum it is possibly a good indication of sound risk management. Once again, it is our belief that as the MTE rises so does the potential for risk. There is also a related risk measurement often referred to as “portfolio heat” that uses similar concepts.

In summary, what we suggest is that you compute returns not based on what the manager reported, but rather on what the return was based on margin (you should also compute the risk and drawdown the same way). This will level the playing field and allow you to compare apples-to-apples. Furthermore, we are in favor of being on the conservative side of the MTE spectrum, for us that means that we would likely reject any manager with a ratio above 10%. Using this method can help you narrow down your list of choices to a manageable number rather quickly. After you have done this then you can then look and compare all of the other risk adjusted performance measures and further refine your selection. (At this risk of this article being too long we will save the other risk adjusted performance measurement discussions for future installments).

We want to caution once again that ultimately no measure is a guarantee or assurance against risk or losses. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Futures’ trading involves high risks and is not for everybody. We are simply sharing with you what we feel is the best method by which to select a manager.

For a related article to this topic please visit the following URL:

“The Small Futures Account Conundrum”

http://www.traderstech.net/The%20Small%20Account%20Conundrum.pdf

Sincerely,

Dean Hoffman

One major difference between trading stock indexes or stocks (on the one hand) and the Commodities (on the other) is that stock and stock index trading is largely driven by emotion, while trading in Commodities is mostly driven by the law of supply and demand.  This, in turn, depends upon weather patterns, rainfall, carryover of last year’s harvest, amount of acreage planted, animal fertility levels, availability of labor and transportation, variations in worldwide usage, and general economic conditions.

Since emotional (or psychological) input has much less applicability to Commodities trading than it does to stock trading, it follows that we can more accurately predict the future course of Commodities prices.  We can learn to interpret the patterns of the up-and-down waves of prices and of certain Indicators which we read together with price information in order to quite closely forecast what prices will do in the future – especially in the immediate future, such as tomorrow morning.

Whether we think prices will go up – or go down – doesn’t make any difference.  We can place our bet either way.

All of us have heard horror stories about a load of wheat being unceremoniously dumped in the trader’s front yard.  That could happen, but you’d really have to work at it.  A little common sense and attention should serve to keep you away from that risk.  And, if you stick to buying options and avoid getting involved in contracts, at least while you learn the business, it could never happen.  The beauty of buying options is that you hold all the cards.  You put your money on the table and all the cards are yours.  At the same time, the absolute limit of your risk is the amount which you paid for the option.  You have the right, but not the obligation, to perform.  The party who has sold you the option has all of the risk.

Here’s the really great aspect of Commodity trading: Even before you begin to think about committing real dollars, you can reduce your investment risk to zero by paper-trading to your heart’s content while you learn the ropes.  What a concept!  Learn something new and fascinating without risking even a nickel.

And, truly, this is a fascinating world.  It is immensely satisfying to place a bet on the direction of a Commodity’s price – even a paper bet! – and have it go your way.

This should not be done haphazardly.  We know that prices move in waves; that the waves move in patterns; and that the patterns are repetitive and roughly predictable in size and direction as time progresses.  We do not simply stick a wet thumb in the air and guess at it; we make our moves with a basic understanding of Candlestick price patterns and of the various Indicators which throw off clues regarding the next likely direction of prices.  So, it’s not guesswork at all.  We deal in probabilities, with knowledge of these helping hands right there in the forefront guiding us to decisions that make sense.  It’s a gathering-in of all of the evidence before the investment decision is made.

Over many years, I have found that trading Commodities is truly an enjoyable intellectual exercise that, when done conservatively and smartly, can be a real moneymaker, at a level or risk which is strictly controllable by the trader.

www.TransWorldFutures.com

Seasonal Spread Trade for Consistent Returns

Spread trading is a unique trading concept not all that familiar to the average commodity investor. The typical commodity trader analyzes a particular market, either from a technical or a fundamental standpoint, sometimes combining the two; makes a determination as to whether the market exhibits either a bullish or bearish bias, and then wagers by going long a futures contract or purchasing a call option, or by going short a futures contract or buying a put option. There are a number of variations on the theme, but the idea is basically the same.

The following demonstrates the inherent disadvantages, in the above two scenarios, of an outright futures position or the purchase of an option;

1. Size of account. The average investor has a limited account size, and can only withstand a certain amount of drawdown associated with any particular trade. The limited size of trading account necessitates the placement of a protective stop order above or below the position. The premature assumption of a position and the inherent volatility associated with commodity markets leaves the position vulnerable to a one or two day move that triggers the stop order, sidelining the trader as the position oftentimes turns back around. As the market moves in the trader’s favor, the advisability of using trailing stops, adjusting the protective stop in the direction of the trade makes sense in theory, but oftentimes the market will open well above or below the stop order, blowing out the stop and oftentimes taking away a substantial amount, if not all of the profit that was being locked in.

2. Time. In the case of an options purchase, you are basically purchasing time. As the purchaser of an option, the time clock and the calendar become your worst enemy. The value of your option depreciates as you wait for the market to move in your direction. Typically the purchaser of an option witnesses the market go up and down, as the value of his option changes, all along the remaining time value decaying on an accelerated curve as the option expiration day grows nearer.

Spread trading on the other hand, is a way of effectively combating the above two problems. Time no longer is an enemy and volatility, to a certain extent, is effectively reduced. Margins are substantially less due to the relative conservative nature of the “hedged” trade, which the commodity exchanges themselves recognize. Margin requirements, for a spread, can be reduced anywhere from 20% to 90%

Spread trading has no directional bias. The market can go up or down, the trade is based only the relationship between the long and the short position, i.e.- as long as the long side of your spread outperforms the short side you will be profitable. Spread trades can be in the same commodity with different delivery months (i.e. buy July Lean Hogs and sell December Lean Hogs), or different commodities (i.e. buy March Swiss Franc and sell March Australian Dollar). Generally speaking, both sides of the trade will have the same overall directional bias, as in being both long and short in the Grains (long July Corn/short March Corn) , or in the Meats (long Live Cattle/short Feeder Cattle), or in the Metals (long Gold/short Silver). This allows for the built in “hedge”.

Seasonal spread trading is another opportunity to take advantage of this manner of trading. As there are many seasonal tendencies associated with various commodity markets, there are also seasonal tendencies associated with seasonal spread trades. Seasonality is a seasonal cycle that forms a similar, reliable pattern every year for many years.

Reliable seasonal tendencies are all around us.

Everyone is familiar with weather seasonality. In the winter months the temperature is colder than in the summer months.

Farmers will plant crops and harvest crops at about the same time every year.

In the summer months, Crude Oil is usually higher than in winter (because people drive cars more in summer).

In the winter months heating oil is usually higher than in the summer (because more people are trying to stay warm in winter).

At TransWorld Futures, www.TransWorldFutures.com, we go back over 15 years of research and analyze high percentage seasonal spread trade patterns. If a commodity doesn’t exhibit a high seasonal correlation, it is tossed out of the data base.

Any spread trade that has been successful 80% of the time or better over the past 15 years is certainly a possible candidate for exhibiting a seasonal tendency and worth analyzing further. Once the high percentage entry and exit dates are determined, it is time to examine the trade on the technical setup. Is the spread overbought or oversold, what are the resistance points? Basically does the trade look technically as well as fundamentally sound. There are a number of advisory services that offer seasonal spread trade recommendations based on historical analysis, but, by ignoring the technical set up, may result in entering the trade too early, resulting in unnecessarily large draw downs, or in entering too late, missing the trade altogether. We attempt to alleviate the stress, and do the leg work for you. The results from this unique form of trading have to be seen to be believed. Please contact one of our friendly brokers today, and learn about one of the most consistent trade indicators.

Rob Rutger

Senior Analyst

TransWorld Futures

Rob@TransWorldFutures.com

Toll free: 1-877-843-4519

International: 011-813-241-1902

Fax: 1-813-241-1927

www.TransWorldFutures.com