Investments | Options as a Strategic Investment

Why Losing Trades Are Good For You

Dec 302009

Many people enter trading, whether it be stocks, options, commodities or other markets, after having been very successful in their primary occupation. Many of these new traders are perfectionists by nature and driven to be successful. This often leads to a couple of fatal flaws in trading:

The reality of the trading business is that a large percentage of one’s trades will be losers. Every business has overhead expenses, or costs of simply opening the doors for business. Trading is no different and trading losses are a large part of those overhead expenses. Once one accepts that aspect of trading, it becomes much easier to close losing trades early with minimal emotional attachment.

It is also crucial to post audit your trading every month. I evaluate each trade that lost money and categorize it as a “losing trade” or a “bad trade”. The bad trade is the one where I did not follow my own trading system rules, whereas the losing trade was executed and managed correctly, but simply did not turn out positively – it was part of my overhead.

The precise percentages of losing trades will depend upon the markets being traded and also the particular trading strategy. For example, many successful commodity traders will only have 30-40% winning trades. At first blush, that doesn’t appear to be a viable proposition, but the key is the ratio of gains on the winning trades versus the losses on the losing trades.

For example, let’s assume my trading system’s average winning trade returns $250 but my losing trades average about $500. That doesn’t look like a winning system, but the crucial missing piece of information is the ratio of wins to losses. If I win 10 of the next 12 trades, I will gain $2,500 and lose $1,000 on the two losing trades for a net gain of $1,500. Another trading system might have a different pattern, e.g., winning trades average a $750 gain, but losing trades average losses of $100. This pattern of wins and losses is fine if the probability of success is high enough to make up for the losses. For example, if my probability of success is only 20%, this system will be profitable. Out of the next ten trades, two winners would account for $1,500 while the eight losers would total $800 in losses, for a net gain of $700.

Always understand the risk/reward ratio of your trading strategy. Couple that with the probabilities of success and loss to know the expected value of a series of trades using this system. Depending on the parameters, one system will be profitable with infrequent, but large, winning trades, while another profitable system may be characterized by highly probable, but small, winning trades.

This explains why you often hear a trading guru adamantly insist that you must always trade where the maximum gain is at least three times the maximum loss (a low risk/reward ratio). But then you hear another well known trading coach tell you that the best trading strategies are the ones with probabilities of success greater than 85%, with a high risk/reward ratio. Nether system is superior. But each system has its own pattern of wins and losses and optimal trade management. Which system is most compatible with your trading style and risk tolerance?

Put Time On Your Side

Option Trading No Responses »

Dec 292009

Many conservative income generation trading strategies depend on the time decay inherent in options pricing. When I establish an iron condor well OTM (out of the money), I am selling option spreads and expecting those spreads to slowly lose value as the underlying stock or index trades within a channel. Other traders may use butterfly spreads or place OTM credit spreads on one side only (calls or puts); all of these trades are based on time decay working in the trader’s favor. This is in contrast to the long option position designed to benefit from my prediction of a particular directional move for the underlying index or stock. Those positions lose value over time if the predicted move does not occur, so time is not your friend for those trades.

One of the items on your checklist before making a trade should be a glance at the calendar to see if any exchange holidays are upcoming. When time decay is on your side, exchange holidays are also your friend. If the market isn’t open, it can’t move against your positions, but time decay is still occurring and improving the profitability of your position. I will often establish my OTM credit spread positions before long holiday weekends to add to my edge.Another important factor to keep in mind is the historical seasonality of volatility. Trading activity slows during several of the holidays every year, as traders take time off to be with their families and exchange business tends to slow. March and October have historically displayed the highest volatility for the year, whereas the summer months and the week between Christmas and New Year’s Day are historically slow periods of market activity. An old wall street maxim is “sell in May and go away.” It refers to the tendencies for many market participants to take vacations and long weekends over the summer, resulting in lower trading volumes and lower volatility. This tends to favor strategies like iron condors that benefit from slower moving, sideways markets.Another factor tracked by many traders is which monthly options cycles have 5 weeks and which only have 4 weeks. Option prices will be skewed because of the number of days in an option cycle. If your trading style involves consistently selling premium each option cycle, you should be aware of the five week option months, since the amount of premium income may be affected.Options trading strategies that benefit from the time decay of options prices are attractive for monthly income generation. Pay attention to the calendar and put time on your side.

Have You Insured Your Stocks?

Option Trading No Responses »

Dec 282009

Many people think of options trading as very risky and suitable only for the “high rollers”. In this article we will demonstrate one of the ways options can be used in conservative financial portfolios.The basic definition of a put option is that it gives the owner the right, but not the obligation, to sell 100 shares of the underlying stock at the strike price anytime before expiration. If I buy 100 shares of Apple Computer (AAPL) at $136.50 or $13,650 and buy one contract of the Oct $135 put for $10.50 or $1050, I have a total investment of $14,700. This position is called a married put; we are long the stock and long the put (long means we own the stock or option; short means we have sold it and have an obligation to buy it back). If AAPL goes up in price, my stock will appreciate but my put will expire worthless. On the other hand, if AAPL decreases in price, my put will increase in value and make up for a portion of my loss on the stock price, i.e., the put acts as insurance for my stock.A married put is analogous to your homeowners insurance; you paid $1000 at the beginning of the year for insurance to cover your home in case of damage from fire, storms and so on. At the end of the year, your home was not damaged and you lost the $1000 you paid for insurance. On the other hand, if a storm had caused $20,000 of damage to your home, the insurance company would have paid to have it repaired and you would be glad you had paid that $1000 bill for the insurance.The married put is similar; if the stock price does nothing, our put expires worthless and we did not need our insurance. In this example with Apple, the insurance cost us $1050 (the cost of the put option). But if you are watching the evening news and see Steve Jobs being escorted from his office by FBI agents in handcuffs, you begin to worry. The next morning, APPL opens at $92, but we look at our account online and see a balance of $13,700 – we are only down $1000 or 7% when our stock has collapsed by over 30%; those may not be the exact prices, but you get the idea. Some of our stock price loss has been covered by the put.Let’s use our time machine and travel back to July, 2007. You own 100 shares of Google stock (GOOG) that you bought over a year ago, and have a nice gain in the stock. In June and July of 2007, GOOG was moving up strongly and was trading at about $548 on July 19th. You realize an earnings announcement is coming after the market closes and want to protect your gains, but still be able to take advantage of any gains that might occur after the announcement. To form a married put position with your 100 shares of GOOG, you buy the July $550 put for $14.20 or $1420. GOOG missed the market estimates for its earnings and the stock closed at $520 on July 20, a $2800 loss in one day on your stock position. But the put option you bought for $14.20 is now worth $30, so you gained $1580 on your put option, reducing the $2800 loss on the stock by over 56% to $1220.However, buying puts on each stock would be rather tedious if I want to protect my entire stock portfolio. In that case, using index options that roughly match your portfolio is one answer. If my stocks are large companies in the Standard and Poors 500, then the OEX put options (the S&P 100) might be a good fit; the SPX options (S&P 500) represent a broad range of stocks, including many mid-sized companies. The NDX options (NASDAQ 100) would be a good choice for a high technology portfolio, since this index is made up of the largest 100 companies in the NASDAQ. The best portfolio insurance might be a mixture of SPX and NDX put options, proportioned in accordance with the stock holdings.The essence of the married put strategy is buying insurance on your stock position. If the stock price drops, your gain on the put position offsets much of the loss on the stock. But if the stock trades up in price, you can enjoy all of that gain minus the cost of the put.The married put strategy is conservative, but there is no free lunch in the markets (or anywhere else in a free society). Our downside protection, in the form of the put, costs us a small amount to establish. So, if our stock only moves up a little bit each month, we may only break even after paying for our put. But when the big crash comes, I may feel much more comfortable because my stocks are insured.

Facts and Fallacies About Risk/Reward Ratios

Option Trading No Responses »

Dec 272009

One will commonly hear or read the following “rule of thumb” for trading:Only trade positions with potential profits of at least three times the potential loss.This sounds like a reasonable rule, risking a little to make a lot. However, it ignores the probabilities involved. Buying a lottery ticket for $1 to potentially make one million dollars certainly meets this criterion for a good trade. But we intuitively know that the odds against us winning are astronomical. This paper will define risk/reward ratios, define the concept of expected value, and begin to explore the relevance of these concepts to success in trading strategies.Risk/Reward RatiosIf we are considering an investment where the maximum gain we can expect is $100 and the maximum loss that we may incur is $500, we would compute a risk/reward ratio of 500/100 or 5:1 (five to one) . This is a high risk/reward ratio in that we stand to lose a large amount compared to the maximum gain. The trading rule above of “potential profits of three times the potential losses”, would result in a small risk/reward ratio of 1:3.Expected ValueThe probabilities of the various outcomes of a proposed investment are often overlooked. When someone tells you an investment will return 300%, but doesn’t tell you the probability of success, you are missing critical information necessary to make a decision about that investment. When one accounts for the probability of the profitable outcome, one computes the expected value, sometimes called a risk adjusted return on investment.For example, let’s assume we are considering a covered call on IBM and the called out return is 4% for IBM closing over $90. If we were to determine the probability of IBM closing over $90 is 65%, then we would say that the expected return or risk adjusted return is 2.6% (0.65 x 4%). We can take this analysis one step further by accounting for the probability of loss. Using the same IBM covered call, let’s assume we have a stop loss order entered that we believe will take us out of the trade with a 8% maximum loss. Now our expected return has two terms:Expected Return = (probability of gain) x (maximum gain) – (probability of loss) x (maximum loss), or,Expected Return = (0.65)(4) – (0.35)(8) = (2.6) – (2.8) = -0.2%Therefore, if we were to place this trade many times, our expected return, based on the probabilities of gain or loss, would be a net loss of 0.2%. One could improve this strategy by either improving the probability of success or tightening the stop loss to reduce the maximum loss.High Probability TradesTrading strategies can be positioned in a variety of ways resulting in a broad range of risk/reward ratios. One extreme category may be called the high probability trades, i.e., trades that have probabilities of success of 85-90%. One type of option spread strategy, known as the iron condor, can be positioned in such a way as to have an 85% probability of profit. On the surface, that sounds very attractive. However, the losses for these trades can be quite large, even though their occurrence is unlikely. For example, a typical iron condor might be characterized as having an 85% probability of achieving a 19% return but a 100% loss with a 15% probability of occurrence. The expected return:Expected Return = (0.85)(19) – (0.15)(100) = 1.2%Or the calculation can be done with the dollar amounts. The 19% gain could correspond to a $1,600 gain and a maximum loss of $8,400. The expected return is:Expected Return = (0.85)(1600) – (0.15)(8400) = 1360 – 1260 = $100Therefore, trading this strategy over time and many trades is going to be close to break even, and probably a loser after trading commissions are included. Let’s consider the opposite style of trading and then draw some conclusions.Low Probability TradesLow probability trades are akin to the lottery ticket, i.e., the maximum loss is small, but the probability of success is also extremely small. There is a category of option spread known as “far out of the money vertical spreads”. The basic characteristic of this trade is a small maximum loss, but with a high probability of incurring that loss. An example might be a vertical spread that only cost $130 to establish, but could potentially return $870. Since the maximum loss is $130 with a probability of success of 12.5% and the maximum profit is $870, the potential gain is 669%, so the expected return is:Expected Return = (0.125)(669) – (0.875)(100) = 83.6 – 87.5 = -3.9%or,Expected Return = (0.125)(870) – (0.875)(130) = 109 – 114 = -$5So, the expected values of this low probability strategy result in small losses over time.ConclusionsTrading strategies come in all sizes and shapes to suit anyone’s style and risk preferences. But the reality is that none of these strategies have an inherent advantage. Some trading education firms and authors of trading books will often claim that they have found the holy grail of trading and have the “best” trading strategy. Each trading strategy has its own set of advantages and disadvantages. In addition, if each trading strategy was applied in a blind, “ put it on and let it run” methodology, the net results would be very similar: near break even or a small loser over time. However, the pattern of the results would be quite different. For the examples above, the high probability trading strategy would have many small positive gains throughout the year, but would be expected to have a small number of large losses that wipe out the gains. Whereas the low probability trading strategy would have a small number of large gains, but those gains would be wiped out by a large number of small losses.Therefore, one must manage the trade in such a way as to develop a probabilistic edge. The best analogy is a Las Vegas casino. If you analyze any of the games played in the casino, you will see that the odds favor the casino. The casino has a small probabilistic advantage, so the owners know that over time, they will come out winners. In stock and options trading, one must understand the probabilities and have developed a trading system that gives the trader a positive edge. You want to learn to trade like the casino, not the gambler at the tables.

Squeezing Additional Income From Your Stocks

Option Trading No Responses »

Dec 272009

Many people think of options trading as very risky and suitable only for the “high rollers”. This article briefly surveys how options can be used in conservative financial portfolios to boost the income from your stocks.For the purposes of this article, let’s assume we have a stock portfolio of conservative stocks, e.g., IBM, GE, etc. We may be realizing moderate price appreciation of the order of 5% annually plus dividend yields of 3%, for total portfolio growth of 8 to 10% annually. One easy way to boost our annual gains without increasing our downside risk is to sell call options against our stock holdings. This is known as a Covered Call.A Covered Call is created by selling the appropriate number of call options against stock in our portfolio. Let’s assume we own 500 shares of shares of IBM and IBM closed at $104.69 on May 28, 2009. We are concerned the stock may trade sideways or only slightly upward for the next few weeks. We could sell 5 contracts of the June $105 call options for $2.35, or $235 per contract. This brings $1,175 into our account. If IBM closes at any price less than $105 on June 19, the calls we sold expire worthless and we keep the $1,175 we received and this represents a 2.2% return on our investment in IBM. However, if IBM rallies to any price above $105 by June 19, our stock will be “called away”, i.e., whoever holds those calls that we sold, will exercise them to buy our 500 shares of stock for $105/share. In this case, our account balance will stand at $105,000 plus the $1,175 we received for the calls or $106,175. This represents a gain of 2.5% for about three weeks.There are always trade-offs for any investment strategy and the covered call is no exception. The downside of the covered call strategy, illustrated by this example, is that we gave up any stock price appreciation beyond $105. In return for surrendering that upside potential, we were paid $1,175, or 2.2%. If we are using the covered call strategy with conservative stocks like IBM, it is unlikely that we will see big moves in the stock price very often. Most months will see our call options expire worthless and we will take in additional cash as the stock price moves sideways or slightly upward. Adding one to two per cent income per month to our conservative stock portfolio adds up over the year.Some traders use the covered call to increase the income from a conservative stock portfolio when the market seems a little slow. Others select and buy stocks with the express purpose of selling calls against those positions. In either case, the position should have a stop loss contingency order placed with the broker to protect the downside. The covered call strategy can be expected to yield about 2-3% per month. Of course, every trade will not be a winner, so it would be foolish to project annualized returns of 24-36%, but one can use this strategy to boost the income from a conservative stock portfolio.One forewarning is in order when using covered calls with blue chip, dividend-paying stocks. If the call options you sold are in-the-money, or ITM, as you approach expiration, the calls are rarely exercised early if there is more than $0.05 to $0.10 of time value left in the option premium. However, if the stock is about to go ex-dividend, the call may be exercised early to take advantage of receiving the dividend. The dividend paid to the stockholder may outweigh the time value lost upon exercise.The Covered Call is a conservative strategy for boosting the income of a blue chip stock portfolio. However, the disadvantage of this strategy is the sacrifice of the gains above the price of the call option sold. Selling calls against highly volatile stocks would be a much different strategy than our example with IBM. A Google (GOOG) covered call would be much more aggressive; when GOOG is quiet and trading within a range, we would make a nice return, but when GOOG makes one of its $100 runs within a few weeks, as it did recently, we would be caught with a $10 or $20 return instead of the $100 return. When covered calls are used in conservative stock portfolios, boosted returns of an additional 5% to 10% per year are reasonable expectations, and this can be done without increasing the downside risk.

Real Estate Investing Business Plan

Option Trading No Responses »

Dec 232009

Real estate investment business is basically a profit oriented venture but only if it is done skillfully. There is thus a need for proper real estate investment business plan. This plan actually includes ways of setting, marketing, developing, and running the business. Therefore, the growth of the business and the financial success depends largely on a strategic real estate investing business plan. However, the first real estate investing business plan focuses on creating a powerful team of agents. It is the real estate agents who not only help by lending good credit ratings, money, expertise, and professionalism but also provide information about mortgage rates. Mortgage and contracts generally add to the profit.The next real estate investing business plan includes deciding over the property that is to be bought. It is of basic importance that one should have a clear idea about the property. The property may be a ‘fixer’ to be transformed into a new one for the new buyer. The idea behind this is to increase the value of the property, which will again add to the profit. This is a kind of business quite popular among the investors. One of the key aspects of a real estate investing business plan is to ensure that there are multiple possibilities of properties and investment choices. This is because the selection should be based on the rating point given to the properties. This will enable the investor to choose a property that promises great income potential. Real estate investing business plan is not just a simple deal. But it is a business that needs proper marketing, which will helps more people in finding and discover new opportunities. Therefore, the real estate investing business plan also includes ways and means of promoting the business. For this, an online real estate investing business plan is the best option. This may be achieved by blogs, feeder sites, newsletters, and even through search engines. However, if the real estate investing business plan is done with a professional attitude, it is bound to be successful.

Stocks Bonds Options Futures: Investments and Their Markets (Hardcover)

Option Trading No Responses »

Dec 222009

From arbitrage to zero-coupon bonds, this all-inclusive guide explains the fundamentals of investments and their markets. Covers how broker/dealer firms function, option trading, technical and fundamental futures, exchange and over-the-counter transactions, and more.

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Getting Paid to Take Risk

Option Trading No Responses »

Dec 192009

As a professional options trader, there are two things I will remember most as I look back at this bear market of 2008, and that is; a.) How covered call writing investors are receiving substantial option premiums to take risk and; b.) How the certainty of a “buy and hold” approach of a well diversified, structured portfolio was not spared from the devastating effects of this bear market liquidation.

REIT’s, commodities, large cap, international, emerging markets, convertible bonds, defensive stocks, took severe beatings in 2008. Every company that was considered “too big to fail”, or so conservative that it shouldn’t have failed, did just that. Whoever said “No two bear markets are alike” certainly got that right. Even Warren Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway stock (Symbol: BRK) experienced a -54% peak-to-trough trading range in since December 2007. There has never more uncertainty among Investors approaching retirement, CFA’s and mathematically minded financial services participants, as the market’s nervous reaction to every “take it to the bank” arbitrage in 2008 became temporarily disconnected.

Author Roger Lowenstein has spent considerable time analyzing those who come to trading by way of the traditional route. In his book, When Genius Failed: The Rise and Fall of Long Term Capital Management1, Lowenstein wrote that “those who are attracted to mathematics and analysis are drawn to fixed income and convertible bond arbitrage because much of what determines their value is readily quantifiable.”

I suspect financial planners and sophisticated investors in general, are a similar breed. The financial planners I know are well educated, mathematically minded, and contemplative. They’re attracted to the certainty of planning, and their vocabularies are peppered with terms like annuity, CAGR, estate planning, efficient frontier, MPT, asset allocation, risk-adjusted return, and diversified portfolio.

On the other hand, those attracted to floor trading, like me are typically emotional, anxious, and highly intuitive. Like hungry street urchins, we rely on quick reflexes and the general belief that it’s more important to be first on a trade than it is to be right. And like any self-respecting trader, we thirst for a little excitement. In fact, we can be described as the liar’s-poker-double-espresso-filled-undiagnosed-ADD-patients-who-trade-triple-beta-ETFs-because–anything-less-than-a-Volatility-Index-level-of-70-is-too-boring orphans of the industry.

Terms that an options floor trader may use on any given day are a bit different than those of a typical financial planner and include skew, kurtosis, theoretical edge, risk reversal, I-Wham (Russell 2000 ETF; Symbol: IWM), implied volatility, assignment, dollar-weighted deltas, and slop.

When I started on the trading floor of the CBOE in 1982, I was 22, and the majority of the traders in those days were from blue collar, Irish families who treated day-trading with the same mentality as a plumber who lays pipe or a carpenter who frames a wall: it was a job.

I spent the majority of my years at the CBOE in the OEX pit, where the practice of hiring MBAs was discouraged – even derided. Why? It was believed that you couldn’t teach a business major anything. And that might have been true: they weren’t pliable enough to mentor. Floor traders needed to have an intuitive sense of risk management and quick reflexes to maneuver around short term market moves. With an eye toward disaster, they frequently owned out-of-the-money puts. Countless arguments erupted between the quants, who understood the mathematical impossibility of a 23 standard deviation move during the Crash of 1987 and the floor traders who had no idea what a standard deviation was, but who did know that they would lose their homes if the market dropped substantially.

And they figured – without the aid of a calculator – that their wives would be really, really mad.

Lowenstein cites how Nobel Prize winners Fisher Black, Myron Scholes, and Robert Merton, who created the famous option pricing model known as Black-Scholes, disagreed with the fat tails or steepness of volatility skew that floor traders priced into out-of-the-money put options. To the creators of the Black-Scholes option pricing model, volatility was a constant, log-normal distribution.

“Merton carried the assumption a step further,” Lowenstein says. “He assumed volatility was so constant that prices would trade in continuous time, without any jumps.”

Today’s options traders need a firm grasp on the nuances of volatility skew, kurtosis, dollar-weighted deltas, and Vega. Yes, we have high speed computers that process tens of thousands of theoretical values in hundredths of milliseconds and seven billion stock and option quotes per day sent from exchanges.

But can the emotional and often volatile pit trader offer anything to the structured, well educated financial planner? The answer is yes. The truth is that you don’t need anything other than a simple calculator, the right kind of experience, and often, a little out-of-the-box thinking to achieve a terrific rate of return. After all, it is said that some of the best inspirations come from outside the box.

And who is more outside the box than an options trader?

I was struck by a comment made by CFA Adrian Cronje, who was quoted in the Journal of Financial Planning, January, 2009 issue, as saying, “The good news is that for the first time in many years, investors are now being paid to take risks.”2

Investors are being paid to take risks. Imagine that.

Nowhere is that statement truer than in the current environment of options trading and covered call writing. To be more accurate, investors are getting paid handsomely to take less risk. Recent market volatility has created a once-in-a-generation perfect storm, a history making blizzard favoring the individual investor and featuring:

1. Unprecedentedly high option volatility levels due to the credit crisis

2. The inability of investment banks to participate in trading due to their de-leveraging

3. Clearing firms uniformly reducing risk across all market participant

4. Continued fear of the downside

Cronje, Adrian, Journal of Financial Planning, “Is Markowitz Wrong?” ;(Jan 2009)

5. Massive de-leveraging of hedge funds and 130/30 strategies

6. Generational low interest rates

7. Pensions and endowments rumored to be selling assets to meet cash obligations rather than rebalancing strategic allocations

Financial Planners and investors may want to brush up on basic option theory especially covered call writing tactics and read the academic white papers on the higher risk adjusted returns covered call writing provides as the nations 76 million baby boomers will be looking to planners and advisors for help in rebuilding their portfolios and simultaneously converting their “buy and hold” portfolios of growth stocks to a vehicle that delivers substantial retirement income.

Retirees are tired of hearing the endless droning from pundits discussing the benefits of greater asset allocation, cutting monthly expenses or promoting the benefits of being a Wal-Mart greeter.

Endnotes:

Lowenstein, Roger, When Genius Failed: The Rise and Fall of Long Term Capital Management (New York: Random House, 2001), 67-68, 76-77.

A Simple Guide for the Clueless, on Using the Internet to Build and Protect Your Investments.: Featuring Option Trading Basics (Paperback)

Option Trading No Responses »

Dec 162009

If you have a 401k, 403b, 457, or IRA you need at least tounderstand the basics of investing.This book is for those who don’t have a clue about investing or the useof the Internet.The advent of the Internet has made investing lessconfusing. It will help you get thefull potential of your investing dollars.One of the common factors relating to investing horrorstories is that they left everything to the so called professional. Ignorance isn’t bliss especially when youlose your entire retirement savings, because you were ignorant of your rightsand choices.Do you know what investments are in the average mutualfund? Stocks. Do you know how many? 100or more. How does a mutual fund makemoney? Is there a time to sell? Or do I have to take the loss? How can I know when to sell?

About the Author

Like most Americans Richard was oblivious to how a 401koperated. One day he spoke to afinancial advisor. He was shocked todiscover that the money that he saved in his 401 (more…)

Breaking All the Rules – Exclusive World Class Investments to Stabilize Your Portfolio and to Help Double Your Net Worth!!

Option Trading No Responses »

Dec 072009

BREAKING ALL THE RULES! Exclusive World Class Investments to Stabilize Your Portfolio and To Help Double Your Net Worth!!
Cabal Capital Management, LLC announces the launch of the Special Opportunity Fund which provides alternative investment opportunities into extremely low risk, very high financial return Advanced High Income Generation Projects through direct investments.

Our fund is unlike all others that exist today by offering investments that are focused on both strategic and tactical investment opportunities into Highly Advanced Income Generating Project(s) producing vital, very high demand product(s) that are being sold directly into the largest “Major” Universal Demand Markets in the world. These investments allow risk adverse accredited investors the ability to participate in the revenues generated from these projects which allows for and achieves capital growth while providing the investor a low risk opportunity with the benefit of dependable and sustainable alpha generation and the long term growth from these projects. These fully integrated projects have been designed to last 40 to 50 years or longer for their life cycles regardless of the global financial and credit markets.

Our fund is well positioned to effectively tap into these markets to the benefits of our investors. The growth dynamics of the United States and Western Europe is based upon local, regional and domestic consumption of all the products these projects produce. This fund is targeting routine and consistent annual double digit returns (15 – 21%) to investors un-correlated to all securities, commodities, currencies and the credit markets themselves since there will not be any exposure to these markets. All project investments within this special investment vehicle have been specifically developed and designed to perform across various business cycles regardless of global economic conditions.

The current global credit crisis, current stock market contractions and wild swings in the commodities markets does not and will not impact our ability to produce consistent annual double digit returns now or in the future for our investors since we will never have, need or rely on the credit markets to establish margin accounts or leveraged positions which most all hedge fund type investment vehicles require to operate. We do not require nor will we ever utilize prime services which the large investment banks provide (Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch, etc.). We do not rely on the stock, commodity or currency exchanges to generate income since we can not control any of the events occurring in those exchanges for our investors, thus we are totally un-correlated to all securities, commodities, currencies and credit markets.

In the case of Deflationary and or Inflationary Markets, they will have no real effect on these projects and the products they produce. Coincidentally inflation will only increase the value of the products coming out of the projects, and deflationary markets will have very minimal impact as well since the products produced will always be in very high demand through out the world.

Risk issues are always addressed through risk management and the review procedures for each and every investment made. Unlike most projects which have been developed, planned and master planned, every assumption for each project has been tested, validated, verified and proven or it’s not incorporated into these project(s). Each and every project is also backed up by a detailed Input / Output Financial Cash Model which is a detailed Program / Project Financial Blueprint that shows the quarterly inter-relationships of investments, operational production revenues, operational expenses at all levels, taxes, imposts and fees, special circumstances events, and financial obligations during the life of the Program / Project.

Since energy production and consumption is the key element to any industrialized country, and with energy consumption increasing globally at an annual rate of 5 – 6 %, energy is and always will be vital to both the U.S. and Western European Economies. Allocating to Energy and Bio-Fuels production are two major key areas of involvement and investments within our seven pronged program investment strategies approach, which consists of the following options available to us: Energy: Oil & Gas (Example Project to follow), Bio Fuels: Algae Based Bio-Diesel and Jatropha Curcas {plant} direct fuel source. Algae Based Bio-Diesel is a direct fuel source currently available and ready for full scale production and delivery {This is not a blend for gasoline!} Algae Based Bio-Diesel Fuel production utilizes proprietary photo enhanced, micro nutrient enhanced, continuous flow, automated, sensor quality controlled, bio-chemical industrial processes and then are pressed, centrifuged, oils separated from water, water treated, cooked, cracked and treated all within a 12 hour cycle (Start to Finish) to complete one batch made ready for use in any diesel engine. Initially 270 Million Gallons per quarter to several Billion Gallons of bio-diesel per quarter will be produced depending upon the initial size of a project program. This Algae Based Bio-Diesel Fuel source has a Cetane Rating of 105 -117 compared to 80 – 85 Cetane Rating for #1 diesel fuel currently produced by all the major oil companies, which provides more power, better millage and performance while emitting 60 – 70% less emissions across the board vs. normal standard crude oil based diesel fuels. Algae Based Bio-Diesel emits no sulfur and or nitrogen into the atmosphere, Alternative Energy: Solar / Concentrated Solar Thermal Power Production, Wind and Electric Fuel Cell Systems, Natural Resources: Gold, Platinum, Other Precious Metals Groups and Diamond Mining: Refining, Assaying, Separation using advanced physical technologies and Bullion production of Gold and Platinum as well as Processing, Cutting, Valuation Appraisals of Diamonds and other Precious Stones, Water: Proprietary Water Science / Technology to Produce Fresh Drinking Water to meet Agricultural, Industrial and Human Public Health needs in critically water short areas through Water production, bottling facilities and distribution. This can be accomplished with any available water supply {in ground water tables, above and below ground reservoirs with a high saline content normally not recommended for human consumption}, Sea Waters & Brackish Waters anywhere Globally, Hydroponics: Food Production: Fish Shrimp, Prawns, Fruits Vegetables utilizing USDA inspectors to garner Grade A Choice Status to include direct marketing into Major U.S.A. and International Consumer Demand Markets, and Special Opportunities: Aviation Fuels: JP-1 to JP-12 for Commercial and Military Applications from Algae Based Direct Fuel Sources as well as Advanced Hyper-Speed Information Technologies and other Advanced High Income Generation Project Opportunities as they become available.

It should be noted that traditional large project investments consist normally of only one income generation production element and typically requires three years at the earliest before the investors see any type of modest return on their investment. Our projects produce immediate results in the first year. These Exclusive World Class Projects which are available to us for investments have no less than 2, but normally include 5 or more Major Integrated Income Production Elements within each project. It should also be noted that each income producing element within these projects are so strong that they could stand on their own and support the entire project, which is why many of these elements are developed together to form an Advanced Integrated Income Generation Project depending upon the requirements and location of the program.

All of the projects that this special opportunity fund invests in involve Proprietary Advanced Technologies and Advanced Physical Science / Processes (not known to the great majority of Asset Manager Companies Staffs). Other types of investment pool managers, hedge funds, etc. do not know or even have access to these world class development engineering people and the technologies assets and projects that they develop, implement and manage. Currently we have in excess of $10 Billion Dollars worth of Advanced High Income Generation Projects available to us for investments.

Another Special Note of consideration is that each investment will bring with it potential tax advantages not typically found in other types of investments. Depending on where the project(s) are located and how the project are legally structured and set up (Development Corporations, Development Authority, etc.) could result in tremendous tax advantages, which each investors tax advisor will need to qualify and determine the best approach for each investors own tax liabilities depending upon their current tax status, situation and strategies.

These projects are conducted by Highly Reliable, Senior Internationally Experienced Technical Managers, Senior Science Managers and Senior Logistics / Project Security Management Staffs, which have planned, developed, evaluated and trouble-shot economic development projects and strong income generation projects in over 65 countries during the past 40 years.

There are in excess of 300 Top Level Executive Technical Managers with over 30 years of Experience in each of their perspective Development Sectors available for all projects that our fund invests in. These projects are designed to insure extreme depth of expertise and experience management which is available to any project at any and every stage of the project program, regardless of location of the project anywhere globally.

** Fully Integrated Oil & Gas / Real Example Project:

This Oil & Gas production program is headed up by a Top Level Senior International Consultant which is an Oil and Gas Industry Executive who has been involved in the Oil & Gas Industry over the past 50 years. This Oil & Gas Executive is the Systems Developer, Scientist, Equipment Designer and Engineer who is recognized as an expert in his field by the U.S. Department of Energy who also has called him upon him frequently in the past to trouble shoot particular Oil and Gas fields as a technical advisor and as a trouble shooter to rectify any and all problems associated with troubled oil and gas production fields.

This Top Senior International Consultant has a proprietary and proven 12 step methodology for siting, drilling, completing and production techniques for all wells. He has a historical commercial success rate of 92% for bringing in all of his wells sited, drilled, completed and producing which also has a normal life span of 15 to 20 plus year’s worth of production.

This Advanced High Income Generation Oil and Gas project is comprised of the following:

A Top Down Electric Air Hammer System which is highly sensorized with Professional Engineers and Scientists managing all operational positions. These auto sensor rigs provide detailed information by satellite to a centralized operations and training center where all decisions are made by people with 45 – 50 years of successful completion and production experience.

Each oil and gas well completed will be drilled in both soft and hard rock beds and will vary in depths from 3,000 feet to over 13,000 feet. All wells in this program will be completed initially in the state of Texas, in the United States of America.

Typical production wells will produce 60 barrels of oil per day to 500 – 600 barrels of oil per day and the gas wells will produce in a typical range of 2 million cubic feet of natural gas per day to in excess of 20 million cubic feet of natural gas per day. The total net operating investment will be returned within 4 months of production for each well.

Multiple producing formations will be completed and isolated with proprietary tools and instruments which will be operated simultaneously through out the life of the wells. The typical life of these well are 15 – 20 years because of the 12 different proprietary methods used for siting, drilling, completion and production techniques, tools, proprietary materials and instruments used on each and every well which prevents formation damage and increases the life cycle of each well to maximize the highest production obtainable.

This program consists of hundreds of oil and gas wells sited, drilled, completed and in production within a 1 – 2 year period. These wells will be sited, drilled and completed in historically very well known and documented oil and gas producing formations within the state of Texas, in the United States of America.

Investors will receive an estimated 15 – 21% annual return per year on their investment, with payments coming at the end of each year from this program. The threshold investment will be an aggregate amount of $400 hundred million dollars which is what the minimum program investment calls for.

Estimated program revenues are based on $60 dollars a barrel and $6.5 dollars per thousand cubic foot of natural gas. Over the last year crude oil (West Texas Intermediate) has sold as low as $50 dollars a barrel up to as much as $147 dollars a barrel. Over the past year natural gas has sold from $5.5 dollars a thousand cubic foot to $11.3 dollars per thousand cubic foot.

Example Oil & Gas Well Profile: One well; properly sited, drilled, completed and producing will conservatively produce 100 barrels of oil per day and 4 million cubic foot of natural gas per day. This provides the overall program (100 barrels x $60 per barrel = $6,000) $6,000 dollars per day of revenue. Each 4,000 cubic foot of natural gas (4,000 x $6.5 per thousand cubic foot = $26,000) $26,000 dollars per day of revenue. Total revenue for this example is estimated at $32,000 dollars per day of program revenue for this example.

** All wells in this program will not produce the same **

Each month this represents a program return of (30 days x $32,000 = $960,000) $960,000 dollars of revenue coming from this one (1) example well. The investment program we are offering involve several hundreds of program wells being sited, drilled, completed and operating within a 1 to 2 year period.

Remember, this is only two elements of a fully integrated Advanced High Income Generation Project which will involve in most cases several other elements to generate very substantial amounts of revenues over the course of the project life. With the combination of several other Advanced High Income Generation Elements within one project, this will enhance the financial returns and revenues of the program itself, and thus will also greatly reduce any associated risk due to the diversification of the different Major Income Generation elements within each project.

Once again, the result of this Special Investment Vehicle fund are highly advantageous investment opportunities that by far exceed the majority of investment opportunities from a financial return and an extremely low risk standpoint by investing in Outstanding Advanced High Income Generation Projects.

Headquartered in San Antonio, Texas, Cabal Capital Management, L.L.C. is managed by Kent Sullivan: www.cabalcapitalmanagement.com

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