Over the past few weeks the volatility and downward trend of the share market has caused traders and investors alike to lose very large amounts of money not to mention sleep.

For those traders who were prepared for such an eventuality, they lost very little of either. They would have lost around 5-10% whilst the average trader lost in the vicinity of around 20% if not more.

The average investor was drawn to the last “Bull Run” like moths to a flame. Having unrealistic expectations of easy money plus they are also being influenced by the media hype which is prevalent in a high flying share market.

The “Flavour of the Month” for quite a while has been Margin Loans. They are easy to set up. The paperwork is minimal as is the setting up costs. So you can be up and running in less than a .fortnight.

The average amount borrowed is usually around the $100.000 mark for which the potential trader has to put forward a fifth. In this case $20,000.But you can buy up to the full amount of the loan i.e. $100, 000 worth of stock. This is called leverage.

Now leveraging is a two edged sword, you can make good profits but you can have big losses as well.

The average investor who decides on a margin loan as a “Sure Fire” guaranteed quick way to make money invariably has neither the experience nor the knowledge necessary to cope with a sudden downturn in the stock market when it occurs.

Using the latest downturn in the markets as an example where share prices dropped downwards drastically in the region of at least 20%.Investors who had margin loans of around $100,000 suddenly had a paper loss of $20,000

When this occurred they were placed in the dilemma of either putting in more money (This is called a Margin Call.) or to buy more shares. In a lot of cases being borrowed to the hilt they were unable to do neither.

So their stock had to be sold at a loss which only exacerbates the problem as other traders are in the same boat having to sell their stock also. With a flood of shares hitting the markets all at once this forces share prices down even further. Causing more panic selling.

In some extreme cases investors were left with no share portfolio at all and still owed money on their margin loans. Not a nice position to be in.

So what precautions can the investor or trader employ to make sure that in the case of a downturn in the market, losses can be kept to a minimum?

The first thing to remember that the only security you have is the shares themselves. You have to maintain a margin between the amount you borrowed and the current value of the shares

This is called your” Loan to Valuation Rate” or LVR

If the market falls below your LVR you then have the choice of putting more money in or buying more shares. To bring up your LVR back again. Of course if you cannot do either then your lender will force you to sell all or part of share portfolio.

Having a diversified portfolio which covers several areas is a good idea as it is invariably one area that is hit the worst.

I personally know several traders who had only BHP/RIO in their portfolio who suffered disastrous consequences for not diversifying.

Another option is to start off with a conservative LVR in place.

A worthwhile valuable idea is to have an unused “Line of Credit” option in position. This will give you cash quickly if the need ever arises.

Lastly is of course to have “Stop Losses” (Conditional Orders.) in place to so that you can minimise any losses to 5-10% depending on the percentage you choose. This also has the effect of locking in any profits that you may have made prior to the market downturn.

Also remember the lender also charges interest on average in the 10% area per annum. That plus brokerage has to be taken into consideration as well as capital gains tax. All of which eats into your profit margin.

So if you decide that a Margin Call is the way to go then make sure you are aware of the pitfalls that can trap the unwary investor.

Good trading!

This is the eBook version of the printed book. If the print book includes a CD-ROM, this content is not included within the eBook version. The Comprehensive, Up-to-Date Reference for Every Options Trader   By Michael C. Thomsett, author of the global best-seller Getting Started in Options Illuminates virtually every technique and form of options trading–including options on futures and ETFs Helps you consistently choose the right options strategies and understand your true risks  For millions of traders and investors, options have become an indispensable tool: not just for increasing profits but also for systematically controlling risk. Now best-selling author Michael C. Thomsett has brought together all of today-s most important options strategies in a single authoritative reference. Using this readable, practical guidebook, you can select the right strategy for any application or market environment, clarify all your risks, and structure trades that accomplish (more…)

Jacket Description:
Avoiding Option Trading Traps
* What to Look For
* Strategies for Success
with Larry McMillan
“I was right – but I’m still losing money.” Sound familiar? Frustrations abound in the options arena. Learning what to expect, and how to react, are the real keys to option trading success. Now, renowned author and “Trader’s Hall of Famer” Larry McMillan shows you how to avoid the 5 most common – and costly – mistakes option traders make.
Benefit from the guidance of this options guru, as he highlights the 5 major problem areas traders frequently fall victim to. McMillan shows you what to do in typical tough spots – and how to avoid them in the future. Master his methods for …
- Using put-call ratios as a critical timing tool
- Picking the right option for your trading style & goals
- Deciding how many dollars to risk
- Determining the correct number of options to buy
- Creating a scenario for covered call writing play
Not a “how to trade” course – this (more…)

No one thinks they’re doomed.

I’m talking about the Canadians, of course.

See, lately, I’ve read a lot about the superiority of the Canadian banking system. And naturally, my contrarian instincts prompted a search for a way for you to make money as the Canadian banks go down.

In the last 18 months, my readers had the chance to make 432% when Lehman failed, 162% when Allied Capital came clean, and 220% on PNC Financial… This month they’re poised to make money on the next bank drop.

And I’m going to give you a chance to join them.

If you think Canada escaped the downward trend in U.S. banking, think again. While the country may not have plunged headfirst into subprime mortgages, it did dip heavily into risky derivatives. The leverage it took on generated impressive returns on equity in good times, but that same leverage is set to wipe out equity today.

Shareholders in one “safe” Canadian bank will have to rethink their loyalty. Its looming solvency crisis practically guarantees a dividend cut. And that’s our catalyst for this month’s short play action – offering us a chance for 200% profit potential.

Accounting secrets have not yet obliterated Canadian bank earnings – like those of U.S. banks – because the Canadians have not yet accounted for the coming tsunami of mortgage, consumer loan, and corporate loan losses.

Here’s how they loaded those loan books with hidden risk.

The Basics of Bank Accounting

Bank shareholders leverage their capital by borrowing short-term money, primarily from depositors. Your bank account is an asset for you, but it’s a liability for your bank. For every dollar of capital, bank shareholders borrow 15, 20, or even 30 dollars from senior creditors – otherwise, they could not afford to own their huge portfolios of loans and securities. Here’s the core problem: Bank shareholders and their agents (bank executives) are lending other people’s money. So bankers are looser with lending than if they were lending their own savings.

The accounting process to determine commercial bank profits is inherently speculative, as well. Banks book an upfront profit on every new loan they make, minus a small “provision” for loan losses – just in case some loans wind up going bad. These upfront profits have the habit of disappearing when loans “season,” and banks discover how many deadbeats owe them money. In case you’ve been wondering what has wiped out the majority of the S&P 500’s trailing earnings, here’s your answer: Banks and brokerages reversing most of the profits they booked on loans made and securities bought at the peak of the bubble.

Banks claimed to make good money loans to every borrower. But somebody sure was lying, since they’re taking charges against these older vintage loans and securities left and right. And the industrywide provision for loan losses, which is the single most important – and unpredictable – cost in a bank’s income statement, has been soaring. Once these provision expenses soared on the backs of delinquent loans, the banking sector’s earnings plunged deep into negative territory.

Throw in a few more explosive ingredients like deposit insurance, central bank lending facilities, loan syndication, and securitization and we’re left with a system for which sales volume – not risk management – is priority No. 1.

Those who claim the banking system is well capitalized – including those who designed the unstressful “stress test” – hold rosy assumptions about how many loans will go bad and how much banks will earn from existing loans to have a shot at outrunning their credit losses.

Lots of bank stocks remain in a fragile state. This month, we’re going to buy puts on the Canadian bank most ready to fall.

A Primer on Put Options

As you may know, an easy way to play the downside of stocks is through put options. Here’s a quick primer on how they work…

Put options are a limited risk, leveraged way for you to make money when stocks drop.

For example — when a stock falls 5% in a day, put options may go up 50%. When big drops happen, puts can go up hundreds of percent in hours.

And since they’re limited risk, if you’re wrong, you’ll never lose more than you put up.

My point is — there’s no easier, safer, and faster way to grab huge gains from downward stocks than through put options.

Having said that, let’s take a look in on how you can use them to make money on the Canadian banks. First, the “macro view…”

The Canadian banking system has won accolades for avoiding direct exposure to the most tempting forbidden fruit: products like subprime mortgages, credit cards, leveraged buyout loans, and loans to finance insane commercial real estate purchases.

The financial press loves Canadian banks. On May 19, The Wall Street Journal ran a piece suggesting that these banks are a model of sustainability, and now have the opportunity to acquire U.S. banks on the cheap:

“Not long ago, Canadian banks were considered slow footed, provincial, and too conservative to flourish in the global boom for financial institutions. Now that banks in the U.S. and Europe are reeling from loan losses and face growing government scrutiny and ownership, Canada’s six major banks are seen as a potential model for battered financial institutions. TD Bank, Royal Bank of Canada, Bank of Nova Scotia, Bank of Montreal, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, and National Bank of Canada posted more than C$3 billion (US$2.5 billion) in combined profit in the latest quarter.” [Ed. note: quarter ending April 30, 2009.]

Canada’s biggest six banks account for more than 85% of the assets in the country’s banking system. By and large, these banks made a smart decision to avoid securitization. Securitization refers to loans that banks originate, bundle together, and sell off to pension funds, money market funds, insurance companies, and other institutions.

But this doesn’t mean that Canadian banks have no credit risk. On the contrary, they have plenty. Mark to market accounting has not yet cut down Canadian bank earnings, because the Canadians have not yet accounted for the impending wave of mortgage, consumer loan, and corporate loan losses.

They will by the end of 2009. It’s impossible to avoid. And just to give a perspective on how quickly lending grew at the Canadian banks, the chart below shows that assets at the top six Canadian banks grew from C$1.3 trillion in October 1999 to C$2.7 trillion in October 2008. Equity at these top six banks grew in line with assets; all six kept their ratios of assets to common equity fairly constant since 1999.

Growth in assets, even if accompanied by growth in equity, is always a risky proposition for banks. At the time the loans are made, everything seems fine. Then, when a serious recession arrives, and a dramatic credit loss cycle begins, the market value of loan portfolios can rapidly decline by 5% or 10%, pushing the banking system to the edge of insolvency. Insolvency is when the value of assets is less than the value of liabilities. Bank regulators don’t like this scenario and pressure weaker banks to raise very expensive, dilutive equity capital in order to protect more senior lenders, including depositors, from suffering losses.

Canada has just entered what will ultimately be an enormous credit loss cycle, and by the time it’s over, the Canadian banks could easily lose their pristine reputations. Until the middle of 2008, Canada’s economy was booming. Its mining, energy, and manufacturing sectors are world-class, and every other sector was pulled along for the ride.

But the wheels fell off last fall. According to Statistics Canada, the unemployment rate rose to 8.4% in May — the highest in 11 years. Ontario, with its heavy manufacturing base and ties to the “Detroit Three” auto companies, is especially hard hit; Ontario lost 234,000 jobs, or 14% of its entire manufacturing work force, since last October. Ontario will lose even more jobs this summer as GM and Chrysler dramatically cut auto production. Alberta has slowed dramatically too. Just a year ago in Alberta, every skilled construction worker was working overtime on oil sands projects. Now many projects are postponed and workers are getting laid off. The unemployment rate in Alberta nearly doubled from May 2008 to May 2009, to 6.6%, and is heading higher.

For Canada, this credit cycle will probably be worse than the one in the late 1980s. According to RBC Capital Markets, annualized loan loss provisions for the entire Canadian banking system peaked at 2.88% of all loans in 1988. As of April 2009, this figure was just 0.77%. Over the next year or two, loan loss provisions should easily triple or quadruple, which would cut deeply into profits and capital… sending the worst of the Canadian bank stocks down.

So how do you play it?

First, I recommend you dig in to the major banks to figure out the one with the most exposure to unemployment rates. Then, simply visit Yahoo! Finance, enter in their symbol and click on “options” on the top left hand side underneath “Quotes.”

You’ll see all of the put options available on that stock. Pick a good one and you’ll be able to double your money as these stocks go down.

Regards,

Dan Amoss

The first technique is called over writing, so let’s take a look see how it works. Before we start there is one difference between UK equity options and US equity options. In the UK one option contract relates to 1000 shares, but in the US one option contract relates to 100 shares of stock.

Imagine you have a portfolio of shares that you have held for some time and these are mainly UK ‘blue chip’ companies. One of your shares is British Airways which you have held for some time, and you have 1500 shares bought at 200p. The market price at the moment is 365p per share. It is June and you decide to look at the current option chain for the next expiry period which is September. The option expires on the 15th September. You look at all the strike prices available and see that there are contracts at 330p, 360p, and 390p. You check the premium of the contract at 390p and see that the premium is currently 16p. You decide to sell ONE contract for which you receive a premium of 1000 x 16p = £160. (the premium is multiplied by the number of shares for one contract i.e. 1000). Please note – you still have 500 shares left in your portfolio as you do not have enough to write a second contract. You have now sold 1 contract which obligates you to supply 1000 BA shares at 390p on or before the 15th September (Amercian Style Contract) to the owner of the contract if exercised in the period. In return for this you have been paid a premium of £160 which is yours to keep whatever the outcome of the contract. OK – lets look at the possible outcomes of this contract as follows:

Outcome A – the company becomes a takeover target and shares jump to 520p

In agreeing to the contract at 390p per share, you have lost out on the takeover news and have missed the opportunity of ‘making’ 1300 (130 x 1000) on your share holding. This is the downside of writing a call option on your shares, that you could miss out on a rise in prices during the contract period. This is undoubtedly true, however there is no guarantee that you would sell your shares at this point, in other words it is only a paper profit had you kept them. The £1300 lost ‘opportunity’ profits are offset by the premium you have received to £1140.

Outcome B – the share price falls to 295p as competition increases in the industry

The price has fallen during the period, and the contract expires. Whilst the price has declined by 65p, this is partly offset by the premium you have received, reducing your ‘paper loss’ to 49p per share. You still retain your shares and any future dividends.

Outcome C – the market is quiet and the share price closes at 390p

You have made a small ‘paper profit’ here, and a real profit of £160.You have kept your shares and any future dividends. The reason you would probably keep your shares is that with dealing costs etc it would not be worthwhile for someone to exercise, although you can never be sure. I have been exercised when the strike and market price close at the same price, but I have also been left unexercised with prices very slightly above the strike. It depends how your broker closes out positions and reconciles their contracts – sometimes you may be lucky, other times not.

Now, with B and C, you still retain your shares so what might you do? – write another call to earn some more income. You look to the next series (probably Dec) and write another option earning more income. With B, where the share is now trading at 295, you might look for a strike at 320 – 340, and with C, probably around 430 – 440. And so on, until on one contract you will be exercised. The most options I have written on the same block of shares is 4! Finally on the 5th contract the price went up and I was exercised. Please remember it is possible to write a contract so that you have built in a loss. Suppose you purchased some shares for 250p which then declined in price , and you wrote a contract at 225p with a premium of 10p. If it was exercised you would be receiving 235p (225+10) for shares you had paid 250p. Now, on occasion I have done this deliberately where I wanted to get rid of the stock for some reason. PLEASE DON’T DO THIS BY ACCIDENT. There are lots of packages around that will give you a graphical display of the breakeven point – most of these are free.

Finally, I mentioned dividends a couple of times above. Naturally, whilst you hold the shares you receive any dividend payments from the company. You should be aware when dividend payments are due for two important reasons. Firstly you may decide not to write an option as a dividend is payable in the next few weeks and you decide to wait. Secondly If you do write a call and a dividend is due shortly, the likelihood of exercise is much higher right before a dividend payment. The perfect outcome of course is where you keep your shares, your premium, and a dividend is paid during the contract ! – it does happen.

One of the most widely read books among active option traders around the world, Option Volatility & Pricing has been completely updated to reflect the most current developments and trends in option products and trading strategies. Featuring: Pricing models Volatility considerations Basic and advanced trading strategies Risk management techniques And more! Written in a clear, easy-to-understand fashion, Option Volatility & Pricing points out the key concepts essential to successful trading. Drawing on his experience as a professional trader, author Sheldon Natenberg examines both the theory and reality of option trading. He presents the foundations of option theory explaining how this theory can be used to identify and exploit trading opportunities. Option Volatility & Pricing teaches you to use a wide variety of trading strategies and shows you how to select the strategy that best fits your view of market conditions and individual risk tolerance. New s (more…)