Options as a Strategic Investment

Many people enter trading, whether it be stocks, options, commodities or other markets, after having been very successful in their primary occupation. Many of these new traders are perfectionists by nature and driven to be successful. This often leads to a couple of fatal flaws in trading:

The reality of the trading business is that a large percentage of one’s trades will be losers. Every business has overhead expenses, or costs of simply opening the doors for business. Trading is no different and trading losses are a large part of those overhead expenses. Once one accepts that aspect of trading, it becomes much easier to close losing trades early with minimal emotional attachment.

It is also crucial to post audit your trading every month. I evaluate each trade that lost money and categorize it as a “losing trade” or a “bad trade”. The bad trade is the one where I did not follow my own trading system rules, whereas the losing trade was executed and managed correctly, but simply did not turn out positively – it was part of my overhead.

The precise percentages of losing trades will depend upon the markets being traded and also the particular trading strategy. For example, many successful commodity traders will only have 30-40% winning trades. At first blush, that doesn’t appear to be a viable proposition, but the key is the ratio of gains on the winning trades versus the losses on the losing trades.

For example, let’s assume my trading system’s average winning trade returns $250 but my losing trades average about $500. That doesn’t look like a winning system, but the crucial missing piece of information is the ratio of wins to losses. If I win 10 of the next 12 trades, I will gain $2,500 and lose $1,000 on the two losing trades for a net gain of $1,500. Another trading system might have a different pattern, e.g., winning trades average a $750 gain, but losing trades average losses of $100. This pattern of wins and losses is fine if the probability of success is high enough to make up for the losses. For example, if my probability of success is only 20%, this system will be profitable. Out of the next ten trades, two winners would account for $1,500 while the eight losers would total $800 in losses, for a net gain of $700.

Always understand the risk/reward ratio of your trading strategy. Couple that with the probabilities of success and loss to know the expected value of a series of trades using this system. Depending on the parameters, one system will be profitable with infrequent, but large, winning trades, while another profitable system may be characterized by highly probable, but small, winning trades.

This explains why you often hear a trading guru adamantly insist that you must always trade where the maximum gain is at least three times the maximum loss (a low risk/reward ratio). But then you hear another well known trading coach tell you that the best trading strategies are the ones with probabilities of success greater than 85%, with a high risk/reward ratio. Nether system is superior. But each system has its own pattern of wins and losses and optimal trade management. Which system is most compatible with your trading style and risk tolerance?

Many people think of options trading as very risky and suitable only for the “high rollers”. In this article we will demonstrate one of the ways options can be used in conservative financial portfolios.The basic definition of a put option is that it gives the owner the right, but not the obligation, to sell 100 shares of the underlying stock at the strike price anytime before expiration. If I buy 100 shares of Apple Computer (AAPL) at $136.50 or $13,650 and buy one contract of the Oct $135 put for $10.50 or $1050, I have a total investment of $14,700. This position is called a married put; we are long the stock and long the put (long means we own the stock or option; short means we have sold it and have an obligation to buy it back). If AAPL goes up in price, my stock will appreciate but my put will expire worthless. On the other hand, if AAPL decreases in price, my put will increase in value and make up for a portion of my loss on the stock price, i.e., the put acts as insurance for my stock.A married put is analogous to your homeowners insurance; you paid $1000 at the beginning of the year for insurance to cover your home in case of damage from fire, storms and so on. At the end of the year, your home was not damaged and you lost the $1000 you paid for insurance. On the other hand, if a storm had caused $20,000 of damage to your home, the insurance company would have paid to have it repaired and you would be glad you had paid that $1000 bill for the insurance.The married put is similar; if the stock price does nothing, our put expires worthless and we did not need our insurance. In this example with Apple, the insurance cost us $1050 (the cost of the put option). But if you are watching the evening news and see Steve Jobs being escorted from his office by FBI agents in handcuffs, you begin to worry. The next morning, APPL opens at $92, but we look at our account online and see a balance of $13,700 – we are only down $1000 or 7% when our stock has collapsed by over 30%; those may not be the exact prices, but you get the idea. Some of our stock price loss has been covered by the put.Let’s use our time machine and travel back to July, 2007. You own 100 shares of Google stock (GOOG) that you bought over a year ago, and have a nice gain in the stock. In June and July of 2007, GOOG was moving up strongly and was trading at about $548 on July 19th. You realize an earnings announcement is coming after the market closes and want to protect your gains, but still be able to take advantage of any gains that might occur after the announcement. To form a married put position with your 100 shares of GOOG, you buy the July $550 put for $14.20 or $1420. GOOG missed the market estimates for its earnings and the stock closed at $520 on July 20, a $2800 loss in one day on your stock position. But the put option you bought for $14.20 is now worth $30, so you gained $1580 on your put option, reducing the $2800 loss on the stock by over 56% to $1220.However, buying puts on each stock would be rather tedious if I want to protect my entire stock portfolio. In that case, using index options that roughly match your portfolio is one answer. If my stocks are large companies in the Standard and Poors 500, then the OEX put options (the S&P 100) might be a good fit; the SPX options (S&P 500) represent a broad range of stocks, including many mid-sized companies. The NDX options (NASDAQ 100) would be a good choice for a high technology portfolio, since this index is made up of the largest 100 companies in the NASDAQ. The best portfolio insurance might be a mixture of SPX and NDX put options, proportioned in accordance with the stock holdings.The essence of the married put strategy is buying insurance on your stock position. If the stock price drops, your gain on the put position offsets much of the loss on the stock. But if the stock trades up in price, you can enjoy all of that gain minus the cost of the put.The married put strategy is conservative, but there is no free lunch in the markets (or anywhere else in a free society). Our downside protection, in the form of the put, costs us a small amount to establish. So, if our stock only moves up a little bit each month, we may only break even after paying for our put. But when the big crash comes, I may feel much more comfortable because my stocks are insured.

Many people think of options trading as very risky and suitable only for the “high rollers”. This article briefly surveys how options can be used in conservative financial portfolios to boost the income from your stocks.For the purposes of this article, let’s assume we have a stock portfolio of conservative stocks, e.g., IBM, GE, etc. We may be realizing moderate price appreciation of the order of 5% annually plus dividend yields of 3%, for total portfolio growth of 8 to 10% annually. One easy way to boost our annual gains without increasing our downside risk is to sell call options against our stock holdings. This is known as a Covered Call.A Covered Call is created by selling the appropriate number of call options against stock in our portfolio. Let’s assume we own 500 shares of shares of IBM and IBM closed at $104.69 on May 28, 2009. We are concerned the stock may trade sideways or only slightly upward for the next few weeks. We could sell 5 contracts of the June $105 call options for $2.35, or $235 per contract. This brings $1,175 into our account. If IBM closes at any price less than $105 on June 19, the calls we sold expire worthless and we keep the $1,175 we received and this represents a 2.2% return on our investment in IBM. However, if IBM rallies to any price above $105 by June 19, our stock will be “called away”, i.e., whoever holds those calls that we sold, will exercise them to buy our 500 shares of stock for $105/share. In this case, our account balance will stand at $105,000 plus the $1,175 we received for the calls or $106,175. This represents a gain of 2.5% for about three weeks.There are always trade-offs for any investment strategy and the covered call is no exception. The downside of the covered call strategy, illustrated by this example, is that we gave up any stock price appreciation beyond $105. In return for surrendering that upside potential, we were paid $1,175, or 2.2%. If we are using the covered call strategy with conservative stocks like IBM, it is unlikely that we will see big moves in the stock price very often. Most months will see our call options expire worthless and we will take in additional cash as the stock price moves sideways or slightly upward. Adding one to two per cent income per month to our conservative stock portfolio adds up over the year.Some traders use the covered call to increase the income from a conservative stock portfolio when the market seems a little slow. Others select and buy stocks with the express purpose of selling calls against those positions. In either case, the position should have a stop loss contingency order placed with the broker to protect the downside. The covered call strategy can be expected to yield about 2-3% per month. Of course, every trade will not be a winner, so it would be foolish to project annualized returns of 24-36%, but one can use this strategy to boost the income from a conservative stock portfolio.One forewarning is in order when using covered calls with blue chip, dividend-paying stocks.  If the call options you sold are in-the-money, or ITM, as you approach expiration, the calls are rarely exercised early if there is more than $0.05 to $0.10 of time value left in the option premium. However, if the stock is about to go ex-dividend, the call may be exercised early to take advantage of receiving the dividend. The dividend paid to the stockholder may outweigh the time value lost upon exercise.The Covered Call is a conservative strategy for boosting the income of a blue chip stock portfolio. However, the disadvantage of this strategy is the sacrifice of the gains above the price of the call option sold. Selling calls against highly volatile stocks would be a much different strategy than our example with IBM. A Google (GOOG) covered call would be much more aggressive; when GOOG is quiet and trading within a range, we would make a nice return, but when GOOG makes one of its $100 runs within a few weeks, as it did recently, we would be caught with a $10 or $20 return instead of the $100 return. When covered calls are used in conservative stock portfolios, boosted returns of an additional 5% to 10% per year are reasonable expectations, and this can be done without increasing the downside risk.